FREE WORKBOOK
Revenue Cohort and Retention Model
A cohort triangle built from two assumptions, monthly intake and retention, showing the ceiling churn puts on growth and how far up the curve you are.
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Who this workbook is for
Anyone forecasting revenue as last month plus a bit
The triangle replaces 78 typed numbers with two assumptions you can actually argue about: how much new revenue you sign each month, and how much of the book survives each month. Every cell is the intake decayed at the retention rate, so the whole forecast moves when either assumption does.
Anyone whose growth is slowing at the same sales effort
That is not the sales team getting worse; it is churn getting a bigger book to bite. The growth-on-last-month row shrinks every month by construction, and the demo book shows it plainly: twelve months of steady intake reaches £205,126 a month, 31 per cent of its ceiling, with each month’s step smaller than the last.
Anyone choosing between sales spend and retention spend
At steady intake, revenue stops growing where new revenue only replaces churned revenue: intake divided by the churn rate. The demo’s £20,100 a month at 3 per cent churn tops out at £670,000 a month, and no amount of patience changes it. Halve the churn and the identical sales effort buys a £1,340,000 ceiling, which is why retention is the cheapest growth there is.
