FREE WORKBOOK
Scenario and Sensitivity Model
Base, upside and downside computed from one set of drivers plus stated adjustments, so the three cases cannot drift apart, with a sensitivity grid under them.
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Who this workbook is for
Anyone maintaining three spreadsheets called base, up and down
Separately maintained cases always drift: someone updates the base, nobody updates the downside, and by June the downside is quietly more optimistic than January’s base. Here the cases are the same engine with small stated adjustments, so changing one driver moves all three together. There is nothing separate to forget.
Anyone whose downside is suspiciously polite
The demo shows what an honest one looks like: six clients and five per cent of fee lighter, two points more expensive to deliver, and the £27,400 base month becomes a £5,303 monthly loss, because the £120,000 of fixed costs does not care what revenue does. A downside that is still comfortably profitable is usually a base case wearing a costume.
Anyone who wants to know how far the cliff is
The five-by-five grid moves clients and fee together, which is how bad quarters actually arrive. The bold cell is your base; the cells below zero are the edge. Counting the steps between the two is the whole exercise, and it takes about a minute with your own numbers in.
